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Executive Summary (short) - Blue Growth Scenarios and drivers for Sustainable Growth from the Oceans, Seas and Coasts

Introduction
The ‘Blue Growth’ initiative aims to elaborate the maritime dimension of the Europe 2020 strategy. Blue Growth is hence defined as smart, sustainable and inclusive economic and employment growth from the oceans, seas and coasts. The starting point for the Blue Growth project is the grounded belief that seas, coasts and oceans can play a pivotal role in the solutions to many of the above challenges and tensions. In order to take advantage of their future potential, maritime economic activities need to be combined – smart combinations taking advantage of synergies and building critical mass. Innovation is key to this. Above all, maritime economic activities need to be sustainable – an integrated approach with a long-term focus and responding to the world’s resource, climate and environmental challenges. It requires adequate support from local, national, EU and international policies. And maritime economic activities need to be inclusive – providing employment opportunities and promoting full participation – especially from local and coastal populations. The main aim of the Blue Growth project is to provide policy-makers at EU and seabasin level with a comprehensive, robust and consistent analysis of possible future policy options to support such smart, sustainable and inclusive growth from the oceans, seas and coasts.
The Blue Growth project thereto:
  • provides insight into the state of the art within maritime sectors;
  • presents knowledge of innovation and technological developments that influence these sectors;
  • creates an understanding of key external drivers that influence their potential;
  • identifies key economic areas for the future sustainable growth of oceans, seas and coasts and;
  • assesses the impacts of policy interventions that may contribute to reaping the existing potential. 
The project was compiled by Ecorys in partnership with Océanique Développement and Deltares from December 2010 to August 2012.

Unexplored oceans and seas in the EU equates to underexplored economic potential
More than 70% of the earth’s surface is covered by oceans and seas, much of which is either underexplored or unexplored. Oceans and seas also form an integral part of Europe’s identity, with currently 23 of the EU Member States having coastal territory and with two thirds of the European borders set by the sea. The Blue Growth premise is that oceans, seas and coasts are key contributors in tackling today’s longer term challenges, such as globalisation and competitiveness, global warming and climate change. Moreover, the oceans and seas play a crucial role in terms of issues relating to poverty, mobility, and the increasing scarcity of natural resources and vulnerability of the planet. Blue Growth provides enormous potential for smart, sustainable and inclusive economic and employment growth – thus Blue Growth comprises the maritime pillar of the Europe 2020 strategy.

Belgian-sized European Blue Economy shows impressive growth rates
In assessing the size of the Blue Economy, a functional approach is preferred over a sectoral approach. A functional approach is centred upon the socio-economic value derived from the major functions related to the oceans, seas and coasts. Many economic activities in Europe are related to the Blue Economy. The current size of maritime economic activities in Europe is estimated at a total Gross Value Added of € 485 billion. A total of 5.4 million people are employed as a result of these economic activities. Economic activities linked to the Blue Economy are not only found in coastal or sea areas, but also includes maritime economic activities located in landlocked Member States. Over the past 5-10 years, the demonstrated annual growth rates for a range of maritime economic activities have been truly impressive. According to Eurostat, some 88 million people work in coastal regions (NUTS III level) and 196 million people (43% of Europe’s population) currently reside in such (statistical) regions.

With a large portfolio of varied maritime activities, the Blue Economy can generate further growth 
A future-oriented study should not only focus on what is important today, but hone in on what can be expected tomorrow. Overall, the importance of maritime economic activities in Europe is expected to grow by 2020 to an estimated GVA of € 590 billion and to 7 million persons employed. Out of 27 total maritime economic activities, this study focuses on 11 activities which are anticipated to be essential for Europe's Blue Economy – now and into the future. These maritime economic activities have been grouped according to their life cycle stage: mature, growth-stage or pre-development stage.

Mature economic activities – the bedrock of Blue Growth 
These mature economic activities currently provide high amounts of added value economic activities and employ substantial numbers of people. The primary challenge of these activities relates to continued performance in the light of strong external pressures and fierce competition from global players. The future of these activities will depend on the strategies and business models implemented as well as the ability of this sector to adopt increasingly sustainable practices and to export to global markets.

Long-term annual growth for shortsea shipping is expected in the range of 3-4 % for the coming decade, while employment is expected to remain at the current level of approximately 700,000 people. Although limited funds for fleet replacement are anticipated, opportunities for suppliers related to environmental technologies are expected to be strong.

Offshore oil and gas is a large-scale activity where multinational players possess global reach. With half of all top ‘oil majors’ located in the EU, the export potential is substantial for both ‘oil majors’ and companies active in oil and gas technologies, shipping and ports. The challenges facing the offshore oil and gas industry will relate to increasing sustainable practices, improving security and ensuring public acceptance for offshore oil & gas exploration methods.

Coastal tourism alone employs over 2 million people in Europe and provides a mainstay to many local economies, particularly around the Mediterranean Sea. Yet, large portions of the sector will need to adjust their business models in order to address demographic changes and shifts in purchasing power. The future success of coastal tourism is expected to be influenced by visions of (sustainable) value propositions – which may overcome the fragmentation of the industry.

The need for coastal protection is expected to expand due to climate change and rising sea-levels. Coastal protection activities, of which EU-players fulfil a crucial role, involve construction, dredging and shipbuilding. Global exports will be a major driver, as public budgets within the EU contract.

Growth-stage activities – creating new jobs right now 
Growth-stage maritime economic activities have already attained critical mass, demonstrating growth over the past five years and promising future growth in the years to come. Growth-stage activities have the potential to create immediate employment opportunities in substantial numbers. However, there are important investments and preconditions required, e.g. sound legal framework and supporting infrastructures for the sectors in order to reach the full potential of these activities.

While overall trends indicate that global volumes of marine aquatic products are on the rise, EU based marine aquatic products have fluctuated over the past 10 years. The prospects for marine aquatic products are expected to come from sustainable sources in general and organic aquaculture in particular. Additionally, growing algae shows significant long-term growth potential for a range of sectors including the health and cosmetic industry, the food and feed processing industry, and the green chemistry and energy industries.

Offshore wind is among the robust maritime employment generators, with an estimated 35,000 people employed as of 2010 and with the possibility of employment numbers increasing to 170,000 by 2020. These increases can not only be attributed to the growing share of offshore wind power capacity, but also to the labour-intensity of offshore installation, operation and maintenance. This potential, however, will only come to fruition if a long-term regulatory framework is put into place and the financing of large-scale infrastructure (notably grid connection) is secured.

Although US companies dominate the cruise shipping industry, the EU retains a strong global position in both the construction of cruise ships and in terms of attractive destinations and port infrastructures. Employment has grown in Europe from 200,000 in 2000 to 300,000 in 2010 and is expected to further expand to 400,000 in 2020. Much of this growth is dependent upon the sector’s ability to develop sustainable business models, to invest in port infrastructure and to address a variety of security concerns.

With an increasing intensity and number of sea activities, maritime monitoring and surveillance is expected to play an expanding economic role (with 15-20% annual growth and 7% employment growth). This growth will be driven, above all else, by security, environmental and scientific factors. A dependence on public spending, mostly by Member States, makes such prospects less certain.

Pre-development stage – investing in jobs for tomorrow 
The future appears to be bright for maritime economic activities in the (pre-) development stage. However, translating these opportunities into jobs requires concentrated investments in R&D, piloting and testing and is also dependent upon considerable technological breakthroughs. One lingering and critical question pertains to whether European companies and players have sufficient scale to compete with global players who may have spotted opportunities earlier or who have more room to manoeuvre to fund these activities.

Although blue biotechnology is currently more of a scientific than an economic sector, its future economic potential is limitless given its ability to generate a wide range of applications. Such applications include the development of new medical molecules, bio-plastics, enzymes and biocides. The EU is well-placed to take advantage of these opportunities due to high level competencies in research and patenting activities as well as the presence of key commercial players from the cosmetic, pharmaceutical and chemical industries. In this respect, the strong linkages between these industries and the relevant fields of research cannot be understated. Accessing financing for development purposes, engaging companies and fostering a stable regulatory framework are crucial for the growth of blue biotechnology.

Europe has a strong position in ocean renewable energy (blue energy), which is still in an early stage of development and has a strong focus on R&D. Prospects are most promising for the development of tidal current energy, directly followed by wave energy. The key to the future success of blue energy relies upon the rapid development of technological advancements and the successful completion of demonstration projects. Fluctuations in oil prices will have a significant impact on the future of this economic activity.

Although marine minerals mining are still in its infancy, economic activities in this area will be driven by expected supply shortages. New technological developments make prospects for sea-bed mining more feasible now than in previous years. By 2020, an expected 5% of the world's minerals located on the sea-bed, e.g. cobalt, copper, zinc and rare earth minerals, could be mined. Although mining companies and investors are often non-European, the EU is strong in dedicating ships, Remotely Operated Vehicles (ROV's), cutters and risers, and integrating all necessary competencies. Uncertainties and concerns linger in terms of the largely unknown environmental consequences and the outcome of current demonstration projects.

The materialisation of the Blue Economy will vary across Europe
The overall potential for the aforementioned maritime economic activities within the framework of the Europe 2020 is significant and genuine. Nonetheless, Blue Growth is expected to materialise in different forms and intensities across Europe's sea-basins. The pace at which development occurs is largely determined by context. For example, an environment conducive to sustainable growth will be most beneficial for Blue Growth. The face of the Blue Economy will also differ widely from place to place. Each of Europe's sea basins has its own economic, social, environmental, geographic, climatic and institutional characteristics that will contribute to a differentiated Blue Growth path.

Europe faces staunch competition in the growing Blue Economy 
EU players need to come to grips with the increasing dominance of Asia in a range of maritime activities. Facilitating and supporting sustainable maritime innovations appear to be a classical European remedy - not only in emerging domains. Innovation is even more so the buzzword when it comes to the transformation of traditional maritime economic activities such as green shipping, sustainable tourism, organic aquaculture and even promoting more sustainable forms of business within oil and gas or marine mineral mining.

Acknowledging the knock-on effects for upstream and downstream suppliers 
Europe's ability to compete and achieve future success in maritime economic activities, such as cruising, offshore drilling, offshore wind, marine mineral extraction and shortsea shipping, will have important knock-on effects for both upstream and downstream suppliers. Successfully rolling out tomorrow's maritime economic activities will, therefore, have a positive impact on an entire portfolio of other maritime economic activities, namely those of a cross-cutting nature such as shipbuilding, maritime monitoring and surveillance and blue biotechnology.

Commercial exploitation of technological capacity is crucial 
The technological capacity of Europe is considered of critical importance in capturing the future growth potential of fast growing or emerging innovative economic activities. In terms of both scientific publications and patents, these activities show robust increases. An analysis of patents and scientific citations demonstrates that the EU possesses excellent academic and scientific capacities in most areas relevant to Blue Growth. However, the potential to commercially exploit these scientific competencies does not always keep pace with the science itself. In this respect, the key strengths of Europe are located in the fields of ocean renewables, offshore wind, aquaculture and oil and gas.

Synergies are crucial for an interdependent Blue Economy
Individual maritime economic activities do not always have the critical mass to prosper alone. Furthermore, conditions for growth are not always realised, particularly if they are located in sparsely populated or peripheral regions of Europe. The potential of Blue Growth can be reinforced by taking advantage of synergies. For example, this study distinguishes different types of synergies such as synergies between shared suppliers, enabling activities, shared (multipurpose) activities, common use of infrastructure, shared input factors, etc. The maximisation of such synergies can often be achieved through maritime clusters.

Maximising synergies through context specific coordination and planning
Synergies occur in situations where combining several maritime economic activities is likely to produce more growth and jobs than the sum of their parts. These kinds of synergies imply a form of orchestrated or spontaneous behaviour between key actors over forms of fragmented behaviour. In theory, an endless number of possible synergies exist; however, these interactions only tend to take place if maritime actors can work together in an intelligent and open manner. By analysing case studies from Ireland, the Gulf of Venice, Gdansk and Oostende, this report illustrates that identified synergies are not always as strong and impressive as expected. This underperformance can often be attributed to a pillarised and sectoral approach. Taking advantage of opportunities for synergies requires that the specifics of each location, area or coastal region will need to be reflected upon and adequately addressed. Making the most of potential synergies also requires support from the proper maritime spatial planning authorities and targeted local development strategies. Maritime spatial planning is essential in avoiding tensions or addressing specific bottlenecks which may occur at a specific location.

Priorities and the future of Blue Growth 
The objective of the Blue Growth initiative – the maritime pillar of the Europe 2020 strategy – is to promote smart, sustainable and inclusive growth and employment opportunities in Europe's maritime economic activities in the short-, medium- and long-term time frames. The Blue Growth initiative specifically aims to promote synergies and foster framework conditions that support specific maritime economic activities and their value chains. Concretely, this translates into a particular emphasis on activities in the (pre-) development stage and targets the level of seabasins, maritime clusters and localities.

Blue Growth requires a range of framework conditions to be fulfilled, most obviously:

  • adequate infrastructure (including transport infrastructure, but also high-voltage and cross-border electricity grids) and highly skilled staff with access to low skilled workers
Other essential conditions include:

  • public acceptance
  • a solid international legal framework regarding the international waters and 
  • good governance at local and regional levels. 
At the same time, it should be recognised that choices will need to be made in contexts where space is limited and the combination of all activities is not feasible. These realities require clear (maritime) spatial planning and spatial development initiatives.

CONCLUSION 
The extensive review and analysis of Europe’s Blue Growth potential has confirmed the potential of the Blue Economy as an untapped resource. The reader can find in the main report in-depth sector information on performance, value chains, main drivers and framework conditions for the sector developments. This is juxtaposed with a geographical approach, presenting the sea-basins and their idiosyncrasies with respect to Blue Growth. Of particular relevance for policy-makers is the section on synergies and tensions between maritime economic activities, since it puts Blue Growth in a wider economic development context. Finally, a thorough review of this report sheds light onto further areas for policy action. These include:

  1. Promote maritime Research & Development – in particular for the pre-development maritime economic activities to bridge the gap between research and market uptake; 
  2. Boost access to finance – to foster maritime economic actors in the pre-development stage and to help overcoming the “valley of death”; 
  3. Invest in smart infrastructure – for the mature maritime economic activities to flourish further;
  4. Provide maritime cluster support – to have more critical mass of actors, also across EU Member States; 
  5. Anticipate maritime skills needs – and attract skilled workers also in remote and peripheral places; 
  6. Promote maritime spatial planning – to overcome the increasing complexity of maritime spatial use and to increase public acceptance for pre-development and growth-stage marine economic activities;
  7. Foster integrated local development – for a sustainable development of Blue Growth;
  8. Stimulate public engagement – a vital ingredient to fully unleash the Blue Growth potential.
Some of these areas, such as accessing finances or integrating local development, are not necessarily specific to maritime economic activities. Still, it is important to bear in mind that the context for such policies needs to be tailored to the maritime environment which most typically includes remote, sparsely populated areas. These areas retain specific challenges for the development of maritime economic activities. The study confirms that Integrated Maritime Planning should continue developing further its overall direction towards Blue Growth objectives.

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